Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Market Performance

The broad market ended flat to slightly lower today. The strongest decline was noted on the DJI (0.55% loss) while NASDAQ 100 gained 0.24%. The Russell 2000 made a new seven-week low today. The S&P 500 saw its lowest close in four weeks today.

The S&P 500's daily volume was 3,059 million shares today, which was close to the average daily volume sustained over the past 3 months.

Short-Term Market Outlook

5-day charts (1 bar = 5 minutes) with a 20-period SBV are showing advancing SBV oscillator readings at session's end (with exception of the Russell 2000 index). Positive money flow on this chart would suggest the possibility of positive trading tomorrow after the market open. 15-day charts (1 bar = 15 minutes) with a SBV(16) are showing advancing SBV readings on the S&P 500 and DJI and flat SBV readings on the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 with a readings at high positive levels, thus confirming 5-day charts' outlook. 30-day charts (1 bar = 30 minutes) with a 13-period SBV are showing advancing SBV, however, SBV readings are at negative levels on these charts by suggesting that, even if we see positive trading at the market open, it could be short-lived unless we see stronger SBV advance on the 30-day charts.

Longer-Term Market Outlook

60-day charts with a 20-period SBV are now showing flat SBV Oscillator readings on the S&P 500 and on the NASDAQ 100 indexes and advancing readings on the DJI and on the Russell 2000 indexes. The following SBV values were recorded at session's end: minus 84% on the S&P 500, minus 80% on the DJI, minus 94% on the NASDAQ 100 and minus 97% on the Russell 2000. Flat SBV readings suggest possibility of changes in trend, however, SBV readings are at low negative levels. Furthermore the odds are on the bearish side. We will continue to monitor this chart setting in order to determine at which point SBV oscillator readings start to advance; this might then suggest increased odds for a coming move to the upside.

1.5-year charts with a 10-period SBV are showing declining SBV Oscillator readings on the S&P 500, on the DJI and on the NASDAQ 100 indexes and flat readings on the Russell 2000 index. Declining SBV readings are bearish. The negative SBV values seen on this chart are also bearish. This chart setting suggests a bearish market sentiment.

Coming Economic Reports

Financial Press

From Reuters:

U.S. factory output slipped for the first time in 10 months in April as a shortage of parts from Japan crimped activity and home building slumped, showing the economy got off to a weak start in the second quarter.