Thursday, April 05, 2012

Market Performance

The broad market ended flat to slightly lower today. The strongest decline was noted on the NYSE Comp. (0.33% loss) while NASDAQ 100 gained 0.64%. Of the last 8 sessions, the Russell 2000 has closed red 7 times. The DJI is now at new two-week low. The NASDAQ 100 index rose 0.64%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.07%. The Dow dropped 0.12%. The current weekly numbers for this week are as follows: The NASDAQ 100 is up 0.26%; the S&P 500 has lossed 0.74%; the Dow is down 1.16%.

The S&P 500 saw volume of 2,298 million shares on this session. This was less than the average daily volume of the last 3 months by 16%.

Short-Term Market Outlook

15-day charts (1 bar = 15 minutes) with a 16-period SBV are showing mixed SBV readings. On the other hand, 30-day charts (1 bar = 30 minutes) with a 13-period SBV are showing flat SBV at negative levels which would favor the Bears.

Longer-Term Market Outlook

60-day charts with a 20-period SBV are now showing flat SBV oscillator readings. The following SBV values were recorded at session's end: minus 58% on the S&P 500, minus 58% on the DJI, minus 17% on the NASDAQ 100 and minus 43% on the Russell 2000. Flat SBV readings suggest possibility of changes in trend, however, SBV readings are at low negative levels. Furthermore the odds are on the bearish side. We will continue to monitor this chart setting in order to determine at which point SBV oscillator readings start to advance; this might then suggest increased odds for a coming move to the upside.

1.5-year charts with a 10-period SBV are showing declining SBV oscillator readings. Declining SBV readings are bearish. This chart setting suggests a weak market.

Coming Economic Reports

Financial Press

From Reuters:

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet shrank in the latest week, Fed data released on Thursday showed.

The Federal Reserve on Thursday issued a policy reminder to banks that are turning foreclosed homes into rentals, and outlined existing guidelines which must be followed in dealing with the growing number of distressed residential properties on the market.

The number of Americans lining up for new jobless benefits dropped to the lowest level in nearly four years last week, according to a government report that showed ongoing healing in the labor market.

A top Federal Reserve official warned on Thursday that the United States could face the same crisis of confidence from investors as European countries if it does not rein in government overspending.

The Treasury Department said on Thursday that a net $815.9 million of government securities were stripped in March.