Monday, April 23, 2012

Market Performance

The broad market declined today. The strongest decline was noted on the Russell 2000 (1.47% loss) while S&P 500 lost only 0.84%. The NASDAQ 100 ended session lower for an fourth time in a row. Of the last 7 sessions, the S&P 500 has closed red 5 times. On the NASDAQ 100, we saw the 6th down-close in the last 7 sessions. The DJI is now at new one-week low. The NASDAQ 100 pushed to new six-week low today. The Russell 2000 made a new one-week low today. The S&P 500 saw its lowest close in one weeks today.

The daily volume of the S&P 500 was 2,675 million shares. This is close to the last 3 months average volume.

Short-Term Market Outlook

5-day charts (1 bar = 5 minutes) with a 20-period SBV are showing declining SBV oscillator readings at session's end. Negative money flow on this chart would suggest the possibility of negative trading tomorrow after the market open. However, 30-day charts (1 bar = 30 minutes) are showing advancing SBV reading at this moment. Taking into account the most recent bearish volume accumulation we would say that despite negative outlook on 5- and 15-day charts, overall sentiment is slightly in favor of bulls (unless we see declining SBV on 30-day charts).

Longer-Term Market Outlook

60-day charts with a 20-period SBV are now showing flat SBV Oscillator readings on the S&P 500 index and advancing readings on the DJI, on the NASDAQ 100 and on the Russell 2000 indexes. The following SBV values were recorded at session's end: minus 28% on the S&P 500, minus 11% on the DJI, minus 37% on the NASDAQ 100 and minus 8% on the Russell 2000. Advancing SBV readings are bullish and suggest the possibility of a up-move; however, SBV values are currently still at low, negative levels which makes the suggestion of a market recovery premature.

1.5-year charts with a 10-period SBV are showing advancing SBV Oscillator readings on the S&P 500, on the DJI and on the Russell 2000 indexes and flat readings on the NASDAQ 100 index. While advancing SBV readings suggest a possible bullish change in market sentiment, negative SBV values suggest the bears still dominate. Yet, if SBV readings continue to advance this could suggest increasing odds for a developing up-move.

Coming Economic Reports

Financial Press

From AP:

The Dutch government collapsed Monday, a day after French President Nicolas Sarkozy lost the first round of that country's presidential election. A new report showed that European government debt continues to pile up despite severe budget cuts, which have led to unrest and political upheaval across the continent.