Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Market Performance

The broad market ended flat to slightly lower today. The strongest decline was noted on the Russell 2000 (0.66% loss) while NASDAQ 100 gained 0.23%. Of the last 14 sessions, the DJI has closed green 10 times. On the NASDAQ 100, we saw the 21th up-close in the last 26 sessions. The Russell 2000 are now down on 8 of the last 11 sessions as well.

2,632 million shares traded on the S&P 500 today. This is close to the average volume we saw on a daily basis during the past 3 months.

Short-Term Market Outlook

5-day charts (1 bar = 5 minutes) with a 20-period SBV are showing advancing SBV oscillator readings at session's end. Positive money flow on this chart would suggest the possibility of positive trading tomorrow after the market open. 15-day charts (1 bar = 15 minutes) with a SBV(16) are showing positive money flow (advancing SBV) as well, thus confirming 5-day chart's outlook. 30-day charts (1 bar = 30 minutes) with a 13-period SBV are showing flat SBV readings at this moment. This would suggest uncertain sentiment on this charts. However, the most recent bullish volume accumulation (green SBV areas) may push indexes lower, furthermore, suggesting that bullish signals on 5- and 15-day charts cannot be considered as strong signals. We would continue monitoring this chart for clearer SBV direction, as it may define next trading session's sentiment.

Longer-Term Market Outlook

60-day charts with a 20-period SBV are now showing advancing SBV Oscillator readings on the S&P 500 and on the NASDAQ 100 indexes and flat readings on the DJI and on the Russell 2000 indexes. The following SBV values were recorded at session's end: plus 23% on the S&P 500, plus 26% on the DJI, plus 11% on the NASDAQ 100 and plus 11% on the Russell 2000. Flat SBV readings suggest possibility of changes in trend, however, SBV readings are at high positive levels. Furthermore the odds are on the bullish side. We will continue to monitor this chart setting in order to determine at which point SBV oscillator readings start to decline; this might then suggest increased odds for a coming move to the downside.

1.5-year charts with a 10-period SBV are showing flat SBV oscillator readings. The positive SBV values seen on this chart are bullish. Overall, this chart reflects bullish longer-term market sentiment.

Coming Economic Reports

Financial Press

From AP:

Stocks ended little changed on Tuesday, paring gains after the Dow topped 13,000 for the first time since May 2008, and as higher oil prices damped prospects for the economy.

Euro zone finance ministers agreed a 130-billion-euro ($172 billion) rescue for Greece on Tuesday to avert an imminent chaotic default after forcing Athens to commit to unpopular cuts and private bondholders to take bigger losses.