Monday, October 24, 2011

Market Performance

The broad market advanced today. The Russell 2000 outperformed other indexes by climbing up 3.30% while the S&P 500 gained only 1.29%. Of the last 15 sessions, the S&P 500 has closed green 11 times. The is also up on 10 of the last 15 sessions. The Russell 2000 are now up on 11 of the last 15 sessions as well. The NASDAQ 100 pushed to new twelve-week high today. The Russell 2000 made a new eleven-week high today.

3,073 million shares traded on the S&P 500 today. This is 16% less than the average volume we saw on a daily basis during the past 3 months.

Short-Term Market Outlook

5-day charts (1 bar = 5 minutes) with a 20-period SBV are showing advancing SBV oscillator readings at session's end. Positive money flow on this chart would suggest the possibility of positive trading tomorrow after the market open. On the other hand, 30-day charts (1 bar = 30 minutes) with a 13-period SBV are showing declining SBV, yet, SBV readings are still at positive levels which would still favor bulls. However, further SBV decline on this chart may suggest that bears are taking over which may result in negative trading.

Longer-Term Market Outlook

60-day charts with a 20-period SBV are now showing advancing SBV oscillator readings. The following SBV values were recorded at session's end: plus 27% on the S&P 500, plus 33% on the DJI, plus 18% on the NASDAQ 100 and plus 28% on the Russell 2000. Advancing SBV readings are bullish and suggest the possibility of a up-move. We will continue to monitor this chart setting in order to determine at which point SBV oscillator readings start to decline; this might then suggest increased odds for a coming move to the downside.

1.5-year charts with a 10-period SBV are showing flat SBV Oscillator readings on the S&P 500, on the DJI and on the NASDAQ 100 indexes and declining readings on the Russell 2000 index. The positive SBV values seen on this chart are bullish. Overall, this chart reflects bullish market sentiment.

Coming Economic Reports

Financial Press

From Reuters:

The weak housing sector continues to pose a strong headwind to the economic recovery, and the Federal Reserve could potentially do more to drive down mortgage rates to support the sector, an influential Federal Reserve official said on Monday.

High unemployment, not inflation, is the biggest problem facing the U.S. economy today, a top Federal Reserve official known for his hawkish views on inflation said on Monday.

The total of U.S. state debt, including pension liabilities, could surpasses $4 trillion, with California owing the most and Vermont owing the least, according to an analysis released on Monday.