Thursday, October 13, 2011

Market Performance

The broad market ended flat to slightly lower today. The strongest decline was noted on the NYSE Comp. (0.47% loss) while NASDAQ 100 gained 0.85%. The NASDAQ 100 ended session higher for an fourth time in a row. Of the last 8 sessions, the NASDAQ 100 has closed green 7 times.

Today, the S&P 500's daily volume was 2,891 million shares. This average was 21% lower that the average daily volume for the past 3 months.

Short-Term Market Outlook

15-day charts (1 bar = 15 minutes) with a 16-period SBV are showing flat SBV readings. On the other hand, 30-day charts (1 bar = 30 minutes) with a 13-period SBV are showing advancing SBV. Positive money flow on this chart would suggest the possibility of positive trading. We will continue to monitor 30-day charts to determine at which point SBV oscillator readings start to decline; this might then suggest increased odds for a coming move to the downside.

Longer-Term Market Outlook

60-day charts with a 20-period SBV are now showing flat SBV Oscillator readings on the S&P 500, on the DJI and on the NASDAQ 100 indexes and declining readings on the Russell 2000 index. The following SBV values were recorded at session's end: plus 10% on the S&P 500, plus 16% on the DJI, plus 21% on the NASDAQ 100 and plus 19% on the Russell 2000. Flat SBV readings suggest possibility of changes in trend, however, SBV readings are at high positive levels. Furthermore the odds are on the bullish side. We will continue to monitor this chart setting in order to determine at which point SBV oscillator readings start to decline; this might then suggest increased odds for a coming move to the downside.

1.5-year charts with a 10-period SBV are showing flat SBV Oscillator readings on the S&P 500, on the DJI and on the NASDAQ 100 indexes and a small decline in readings on the Russell 2000 index. This chart setting suggests an uncertain longer-term market sentiment.

Coming Economic Reports

Financial Press

From Reuters:

Recent Federal Reserve moves aimed at bolstering a slow but intact recovery reduce the central bank's credibility and ultimately its ability to keep inflation in check and unemployment low, a top Fed official said on Thursday.

From Capitol Hill and Wall Street to small towns across the United States, discussions of the economy have focused on one key question for the past two years: When will corporate America start hiring again?

The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits dipped last week and the U.S. trade deficit narrowed slightly in August, signs that point to a slight strengthening in growth.

The trade deficit narrowed marginally in August, but the trade gap with China widened to a record high, the Commerce Department said on Thursday.

Stagnation is probably the best many of the world's biggest developed economies can hope for over the next year, with several facing a significant chance of recession, Reuters polls of around 350 economists showed on Thursday.